The National Democratic Congress (NDC) is gearing up for elections to elect parliamentary candidates for the party in all the 275 constituencies for the 2024 election.
According to the General Secretary of the NDC, Fifi Fiavi Kwetey, May 13, 2023 has been set as the date for both the presidential and parliamentary primaries.
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All across the 275 constituencies, prospective candidates are busily campaigning to secure the needed votes to contest the 2024 elections on the ticket of the NDC.
Tema Central Constituency, a constituency which since its inception has been won by the NPP is no exception.
So far about four candidates are visibly campaigning to get the nod to represent the party in the next elections. This includes Ebi Bright who is seeking a third chance after contesting for the party in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
In 2016, she was the party’s candidate after going unopposed in the primaries.
In 2018, she beat Sedina Matanawui and Carl Owuompesika in the primaries to get the nod.
On May 13, she is expected to be on the ballot again with the two previous contestants and a new entrant, Courage Makafui Nunekpeku, who has been a party financier over the years.
Below is a statistical reasons why Ebi Bright is not the suitable candidate for the NDC if the party want to win the seat for the first time in 2024.
Per the 2012 election results, the NPP’s candidate, Kofi Brako, garnered 26, 948 representing 59.87% while Lawyer James Enu of the NDC polled 14,360 which is 31.90% percent of the total votes cast.
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In 2016 however, while Ebi Bright on the ticket of the NDC polled 12,937 votes representing 31.11% of the total valid votes, Kofi Brako for the NPP got 28,334 votes which represents 68.14%.
Comparing the 2012 and 2016 results, the NDC lost 1,423 votes through Ebi with the NPP gaining 1,386 more votes through Kofi Brako. In percentage wise, this is a loss of 0.79% for the NDC and a gain of 8.27% for the NPP.
In 2020, the NPP introduced a new candidate, Yves Hanson-Nortey who gathered 31,121 votes while Ebi Bright, contesting on the ticket of the NDC for the second time had 16,728. This represents 64.75% and 34.80% respectively.
A comparison of the 2016 and the 2020 results reveals that the NDC gained 3,791 votes through Ebi Bright with the NPP also making a gain of 2,787 through their first time candidate, Yves Hanson-Nortey. However, in terms of percentage, Ebi gained 3.69% while Yves Hanson-Nortey reduced the NPP’s percentage by 3.39%.
Striking a difference between the gains made by both candidates for their parties (in terms of actual votes cast), the NDC represented by Ebi Bright gained 1,004 votes more than the gains made by Yves Hanson-Nortey for the NPP.
Now let’s compare the gains made by both parties in 2020 from 2012.
Ebi Bright inherited 14,360 (31.90%) in 2012 and by 2020, she had increased it to 16,728 (34.80%). This is an increase by 2,368 (2.9%).
For the NPP, their votes have increased from 26,948 (59.87%) in 2012 to 31,121 (64.75%) in 2020. This means an increase of 4,173 (4.88%).
Clearly, from the statistics above, it is almost impossible for Ebi Bright to cause an upset in the 2024 elections by winning the seat for the NDC. Although she has made some gains for the party, the margin of gain is very insignificant and far below the gains needed to cause an upset in the Tema Central Constituency.
It is therefore very necessary for the NDC to elect a formidable candidate who has the needed resources for the campaign, a charismatic candidate who appeals to both floating voters and disappointed members of the NPP, and one who is ready to work harder to cause an upset in the 2024 general elections.
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